Modelling the Age Specific Fertility Rates of Rural and Urban Areas of Pakistan During 1984-2007

This paper investigates the fertility pattern of Pakistan and its major breakdown rural and urban areas. The analysis of the age specific fertility rates (ASFRs) illustrated the greater fertility in the rural population as compared to the urban and of Pakistan population during the period 1984-2007. Approximately, 44.98% decrease in total fertility rate (TFR) of urban population during the past 23 years has been seen whereas 48.72% and 46.76% decrease in TFR of urban area and of Pakistan respectively with reference to the 1984. Different parametric models were fitted on the ASFRs of rural, urban and Pakistan during the year 2007. But for the sake of comparison, the outcomes of only two highly significant parametric models i.e. Hadwiger function and Peristera and Kostaki model (P-K model-I) were discussed thoroughly in this paper. Consequently, the P-K model-I is proposed as a parsimonious model. To examine the disparity among the ASFRs of rural, urban and Pakistan, Gini coefficients & Lorenz curves were also computed for Pakistan as well as its major geographical regions. The Lorenz curves explained more concentration within the urban population as compared to the Pakistan and its rural population during 2007.