Time Series Analysis and Forecasting of Water Reservoir in Pakistan

Batool, Z. and Yaseen, M.
(2016) 14-th International Conference on Statistical Sciences, Karachi, Pakistan, 29, 195-202

In water resource management daily flow to the reservoir is most important factor, in this study the daily flow to the reservoir as well as upstream has been forecast by different models. Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) and Autoregressive Moving Average (ARMA) models has been used to forecast daily flow of different dams and linked canals in Pakistan. Application in practical science ARIMA model plays an important role. Both ARIMA and ARMA model has been used to compare the capability of autoregressive forecast of daily dam reservoir inflow. Forecast accuracy of Tarbela Dam reservoir inflow has been increased if we increase the number of parameter in ARMA and ARIMA models. To forecast Dam reservoir inflow polynomial for ARMA and ARIMA models was derived up to four and six parameter. Root mean square error concludes that ARIMA model can be used to forecast the level of water for different rivers in Pakistan with less error than ARMA model.